When will monsoon arrive in India? Here’s what IMD predicts for Delhi, other key cities

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 27, marking an early arrival by five days from its usual onset date of June 1. The onset of monsoon over Kerala is a crucial meteorological indicator that signals the transition from the scorching summer to the much-awaited rainy season across India.

An early onset can have a significant impact, especially for agriculture. It allows for the timely commencement of Kharif (summer-sown) crop sowing, providing farmers with a valuable head start. IMD noted that this forecast helps agricultural stakeholders plan and prepare for the season ahead.

When will monsoon hit Delhi, other key cities?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has shared its projected timeline for the southwest monsoon’s arrival across several key Indian cities, offering much-needed clarity on when residents can expect the first showers of the season. According to the IMD’s forecast, Mumbai and Kolkata are likely to welcome the monsoon between June 10 and 15. For Hyderabad, the monsoon is set to make its appearance a little earlier, between June 5 and 10, while cities in the southern region such as Bengaluru and Chennai can anticipate their first spell of monsoon showers between June 1 and 5.

As for the national capital, Delhi, monsoon rains are expected between June 25 and 30, marking the seasonal transition a little later than the southern and central parts of the country. In western India, Ahmedabad is projected to receive monsoon showers between June 15 and 20, while Jaipur is expected to get rain around the same time as Delhi, from June 25 to 30.

Onset of monsoon in Kerala

Notably, the monsoon usually sets in over Kerala around June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days, and typically covers the entire country by July 8. Since 2005, the IMD has been releasing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala using an indigenously developed, state-of-the-art statistical model. This model comes with a forecast error margin of ±4 days. The IMD’s predictions over the last two decades (2005–2024) have been largely accurate, barring a single miss in 2015, when the actual onset occurred on June 5, overshooting the predicted date (May 30) and the model’s error limit.

A look at IMD’s predictions and actual onset date of monsoon in last 5 years:

Monsoon onset over South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea

Meanwhile, the IMD also confirmed that the monsoon has already made an early advance over some parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, arriving at least a week ahead of its usual schedule. It is now expected to progress further into more regions of the country in the next three to four days. Notably, this year’s onset over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea is the earliest recorded in the past seven years. According to IMD’s climatological data, the monsoon normally arrives over the South Andaman Sea and Port Blair in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 21.

It is to be noted here that monsoons are a key indicator that helps analysts gauge the economic outlook of the country’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors. In 2024, the southwest monsoon rains in India hit a four-year high, experiencing about 108 per cent of the long-period average at 934.8 mm, data made available by the state-run weather bureau showed. The long-period average in India is 868.6 mm.

The advance of the southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala. It is an important indicator characterising the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.

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