As the Los Angeles wildfires continue to wreak havoc, dry conditions across South California have only fuelled the disaster. The dry conditions have given rise to deadly wind-driven wildfires that have turned thousands of homes and other structures in the Los Angeles area into ashes. In early January, the soil moisture in most parts of South California was in the bottom 2% of historical records, which is extremely low.
California receives very little rainfall between May and September. Therefore, it relies on the Sierra snowpack for about one-third of its freshwater supply. In November, the region got some rainfall but that was not enough to improve its dry profile.
Understanding Southern California’s dry profile
The air in the Southern California is already warm and dry, and processes like transpiration and evaporation also suck water out of the plants and soil. It therefore leaves dry vegetation that can act as fuel for flying embers to spread wildfires, as the Los Angeles area saw in early January.
According to the US Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook, drought is likely to develop in the region in the coming months. The outlook considers forecasts for La Niña, an ocean temperature pattern that was on its way to developing in the Pacific Ocean in early 2025.
Did La Niña fail in Southern California’s case?
While La Niña tends to mean drier conditions in Southern California, not every La Niña is expected to impact California in the same way. However, one or two big rain events may completely turn the table for Southern California’s water situation.
As per the latest updates, wildfires have killed 11 people and burned more than 12,000 homes and other structures this week. Officials have urged more than 180,000 residents to evacuate at the height of the fires. Notably, Santa Ana winds, which can get as fast as a hurricane, have swept down the mountains outside Los Angeles, spreading wildfires into several neighbourhoods.
(With inputs from AP)
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