Pakistan’s military faces a severe crisis, with critical ammunition shortages leaving it capable of sustaining only four days of high-intensity combat, largely due to extensive arms sales to Ukraine and Israel.
Pakistan’s military preparedness has come under intense scrutiny following revelations of a severe shortage in artillery ammunition, a consequence of extensive arms deals with Ukraine and Israel. While these international sales provided much-needed financial inflows, they have gravely weakened Pakistan’s defence capabilities, raising alarms over its ability to sustain prolonged conflict. Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s forces could maintain high-intensity combat operations for no more than four days, leaving vital weapon systems vulnerable to destruction by any impending hostile action.
Arms deals and their implications
In the backdrop of global conflict, Pakistan’s military establishment has found itself balancing economic desperation with strategic survival. Amid the Russia-Ukraine war, beginning in 2022, Pakistan covertly emerged as a key supplier of munitions, despite publicly claiming neutrality. The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) in Wah Cantt funnelled millions of rounds of artillery shells, rockets, and small arms ammunition to Ukraine through secret routes.
Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan shipped 42,000 122mm BM-21 rockets, 60,000 155mm howitzer shells, and 130,000 122mm rockets, reportedly earning $364 million. Alarming reports suggest that up to 80% of the profits were siphoned to the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi. By the fiscal year 2022-23, Pakistan’s arms exports soared to $415 million, a staggering 3,000% increase from the previous year’s figure of $13 million, predominantly driven by these secretive arms deals.
Depletion of war reserves
Traditionally reliant on the POF to supply its 600,000-strong army, Pakistan’s military began bleeding its war reserves at an alarming rate. Social media reports from April 2025 further highlighted that critical stocks of 155mm artillery shells—cornerstones of Pakistan’s artillery-centric military doctrine—were massively diverted to Ukraine, leaving domestic reserves dangerously depleted.
By 2025, defence analysts estimated that Pakistan’s ammunition could sustain just 96 hours (four days) of high-intensity warfare. This grim assessment reflects lessons learned from Ukraine, where extensive artillery use rapidly drained stockpiles, exposing vulnerabilities in unprepared militaries.
Artillery systems rendered ineffective
The shortage of 155mm shells has particularly crippled Pakistan’s artillery forces, severely impacting vital systems like the M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket systems. Furthermore, Pakistan’s newly acquired SH-15 Mounted Gun Systems (MGS)—recently paraded across the country as a show of strength—have been left with insufficient ammunition. These advanced systems were procured with the expectation of local production at POF Wah, but the sale of 155mm rounds to Ukraine has left all 155mm-based artillery units, including self-propelled and MGS artillery, without the ammunition necessary for operational effectiveness.
Without munitions, these formidable platforms are, according to analysts, “mere sitting ducks”—vulnerable and ineffective against a determined adversary.
A widening capability gap with India
A 2022 report already pointed to Pakistan’s modest defence exports compared to its much larger imports—$30.1 million in imports against $3.8 million in exports. The depletion of reserves has further widened the military capability gap, especially as India has bolstered its own defence imports by 61% between 2015-19 and 2020-24.
Economic turmoil compounds military constraints
Simultaneously, Pakistan continues to battle an acute economic crisis, with soaring inflation, ballooning debt, and shrinking foreign exchange reserves straining every sector, including defence.
Faced with financial constraints, the Pakistan Army has been forced to cut back on soldier rations, suspend military exercises, and even cancel scheduled war games due to fuel shortages. Former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa openly acknowledged these stark limitations, conceding that Pakistan currently lacks the resources to endure a prolonged conflict with India.
Resentment and strategic panic
Public resentment has grown over what critics describe as the military’s profiteering at the expense of national security. While Pakistan’s generals reaped financial gains, the nation’s conventional warfighting ability has been critically compromised.
In strategic terms, having only four days’ worth of combat capacity represents not just a vulnerability but a potential death knell for a military that has historically prided itself on resilience. In pursuit of short-term financial gain, Pakistan’s leadership has, as critics put it, inflicted a long-term strategic wound that could prove fatal in a future crisis.
Ineffective measures and rising concerns
Despite constructing new ammunition depots near the India-Pakistan border, intelligence reports suggest that these preparations offer little assurance, given the dire shortage of stock to fill them. Analysts widely speculate that Pakistan’s own arms transfers have so critically drained reserves that the country would struggle to sustain fighting beyond four days in any full-scale war scenario.
The gravity of the situation was further underscored during the Special Corps Commanders Conference on May 2, 2025, where Pakistan’s top military hierarchy reportedly discussed the ammunition crisis among several pressing issues, with insiders suggesting a mood of deep concern bordering on panic.