DNA Exclusive: Has Congress Lost Its Ground Completely In UP?

NEW DELHI: In the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party is poised to repeat a historical feat after 57 years. It is widely acknowledged in political circles that the path to power in India traverses through Uttar Pradesh. The party that conquers UP holds the reins of the nation. Both the Congress and the BJP are keenly aware of this fact. However, recent electoral performances by the Congress in UP have been dismal, even worse than during the Emergency era.

In the last election, Congress lost its stronghold of Amethi, and now it seems that Rae Bareli, another bastion, is also on the verge of falling. Sonia Gandhi has filed her nomination for the Rajya Sabha from Jaipur today, indicating her preparation to step into the upper house of Parliament. Does this signal the end of Congress’ influence in UP? Today, in DNA, we delve into the political trajectory of Congress in UP.

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The ties between the Gandhi family and their ancestral roots seem to be loosening, and politically, Congress’ connection with the Gandhi family in UP is dwindling. This assertion is grounded in the fact that Sonia Gandhi, who was a Lok Sabha member from Rae Bareli, has now opted to contest Rajya Sabha elections from Rajasthan. This decision indicates that Sonia Gandhi is not willing to challenge any candidate from Rae Bareli. Does this mean that Congress’ political ties with UP have completely severed, especially as its last stronghold is crumbling?

However, Congress doesn’t seem to agree with this assessment. When Sonia Gandhi arrived in Jaipur to file her nomination for the Rajya Sabha, she was accompanied by Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra. The party members are content with this nomination.

Congress leaders had to toe the party line, expressing support for their senior leader and matriarch Sonia Gandhi, but they also had to maintain political propriety by not antagonizing their adversaries. Hence, they echoed the party’s stance. Nonetheless, they all seem to be acknowledging, in unison, that Congress’ political roots in Uttar Pradesh have been entirely uprooted. Rae Bareli, the last fortress, was also set to crumble in the upcoming elections. Thus, Sonia Gandhi, displaying wisdom, has turned her gaze towards the Rajya Sabha to make a dignified exit.

In the last two Lok Sabha elections, Congress’ fortunes have continued to dwindle. Despite the Emergency in 1977, the party managed to secure 154 seats in the Lok Sabha. However, in 2014 and 2019, it won a mere 44 and 52 seats, respectively. Furthermore, in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly elections, Congress could only secure 2 out of 403 seats. Even in its strongholds of Rae Bareli and Amethi, Congress couldn’t retain 10 assembly seats. The situation was so dire in the UP Assembly elections that its candidates lost their deposit in three out of six seats in Rae Bareli.

It’s astonishing to note that Congress’ obliteration from Uttar Pradesh seems almost certain. In the last state assembly elections, Congress fielded candidates in 399 out of 403 constituencies, out of which bail was granted for candidates in 387 seats. In other words, the electorate rejected Congress on nearly 97% of the seats in UP. Perhaps a significant reason for this decline could be the realization that Sonia Gandhi contesting from Rae Bareli might be a forgotten tale. Therefore, in a display of foresight, Congress bid Sonia Gandhi a respectable farewell from active parliamentary politics.

The decline of Congress in Uttar Pradesh is nearly inevitable. The recent nomination of Sonia Gandhi for the Rajya Sabha from Jaipur, abandoning her traditional seat of Rae Bareli, signifies the end of an era. With their last political fortress about to crumble, Congress seems to be making strategic moves for a dignified exit from UP politics.