The IMD has updated its forecast, predicting that the country will receive 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, indicating above-normal rainfall.
The southwest monsoon made an early onset over Kerala on May 24, 2025, marking its earliest arrival since 2009 and eight days ahead of the typical June 1 onset date. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the onset, noting that the monsoon also advanced into parts of northeast India, including Mizoram, on the same day.
Several meteorological factors contributed to this early onset:
Enhanced Cross-Equatorial Winds: Stronger-than-usual winds from the southern hemisphere facilitated the early arrival of monsoon currents over the Indian subcontinent.
Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): The MJO, a tropical disturbance that influences weather patterns, was in a phase conducive to increased convection over the Indian Ocean, aiding monsoon development.
Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions: The absence of El Niño or La Niña conditions created a neutral environment, which is typically favorable for monsoon progression.
Rapid Progression Across the Subcontinent
Following its early onset in Kerala, the monsoon advanced swiftly:
Mizoram: The monsoon reached Mizoram on the same day as Kerala, 12 days ahead of its normal schedule.
Telangana: The monsoon arrived in Telangana by May 27, marking its earliest onset in a decade.
The IMD has indicated that conditions are favorable for the monsoon to further advance into more parts of central and northern India in the coming days.
Implications for Agriculture and Economy
The early arrival of the monsoon is expected to have several positive impacts:
Agricultural Benefits: Timely monsoon rains can facilitate early sowing of kharif crops such as rice, maize, and pulses, potentially leading to better yields.
Economic Outlook: A strong monsoon season supports India’s agriculture-dependent economy by boosting crop production and aiding in inflation control.
However, the early rains have also led to challenges, including damage to certain crops and supply chain disruptions, causing price hikes in vegetables like tomatoes and onions in some regions.
Forecast for the Monsoon Season
The IMD has updated its forecast, predicting that the country will receive 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, indicating above-normal rainfall.
While the early onset is promising, meteorologists caution that the overall distribution and consistency of rainfall throughout the season will be critical in determining the monsoon’s success.
