The 2025 US World Threat Assessment warns that China and Pakistan pose growing military threats to India, with China seen as the primary rival and Pakistan intensifying its nuclear strategy to counter India’s conventional strength.
A recently released U.S. intelligence report, titled 2025 World Threat Assessment, highlights growing concerns over the military ambitions of China and Pakistan, calling them two of India’s most significant security challenges. The assessment outlines the evolving strategic landscape in South Asia and beyond, emphasising both countries’ efforts to modernize and expand their military capabilities.
The report comes in the wake of Operation Sindoor and evaluates India’s evolving defence posture. It notes that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to focus on reinforcing India’s global standing, bolstering its military strength, and countering China’s growing influence. While India sees China as its primary strategic rival, the report states that Pakistan is viewed more as a persistent, though secondary, security concern—despite recent cross-border hostilities in mid-May.
Pakistan’s military modernisation and nuclear focus
The assessment outlines Pakistan’s key defence priorities over the coming year, which include managing border tensions, combating domestic terrorist threats from groups like Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch insurgents, and advancing its nuclear capabilities. In 2024 alone, militant attacks led to over 2,500 fatalities across Pakistan.
Pakistan continues to view India as a fundamental threat and is therefore intensifying efforts to enhance its nuclear strategy, including the development of tactical nuclear weapons aimed at offsetting India’s superior conventional forces. The report also highlights concerns about Pakistan acquiring sensitive materials and technology through networks primarily linked to China and other intermediary nations like the UAE, Turkey, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
China’s expanding global military ambitions
The report paints a stark picture of China’s ambitions, describing the country as the most comprehensive military threat to the United States. China is rapidly upgrading its military across all domains—land, air, sea, cyber, and space. Beijing’s goal, the report suggests, is to secure dominance in East Asia, unify Taiwan with the mainland, and challenge the U.S. on a global scale.
China’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have exceeded 600 operational warheads and is expected to surpass 1,000 by 2030. The country is also investing heavily in space-based technologies to undermine U.S. superiority in satellite and surveillance systems and is building overseas military logistics hubs to support extended deployments.
The report concludes that both China and Pakistan remain key geopolitical flashpoints and will significantly shape regional and global security dynamics in the years ahead.
