The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or the CPEC is a major economic pact between Beijing and Islamabad, which is designed to enhance trade, transport, and energy connectivity.
China’s ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is now set to extend into Afghanistan. A significant trilateral agreement has been signed between China, Pakistan, and the Taliban-led Afghan government to implement this expansion. At face value, the aim is to boost Afghanistan’s economy and improve connectivity across South Asia.
However, this new China-Pakistan-Afghanistan alignment poses several strategic and geopolitical concerns for India.
What is CPEC?
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or the CPEC is a major economic pact between Beijing and Islamabad, which is designed to enhance trade, transport, and energy connectivity. It includes the development of roads, railways, and energy infrastructure to streamline goods movement and promote economic integration. The project also offers China a strategic edge in the region—something that lies at the heart of India’s concerns.
Under the new trilateral agreement, Afghanistan will be included in the CPEC framework. This could open up new economic opportunities and infrastructure development projects in the war-torn nation, potentially generating employment and improving the country’s financial outlook. Experts believe this could lead to greater regional connectivity and bolster trade across South Asia. However, for India, the implications of this development are far from positive.
Why Afghanistan’s inclusion in CPEC is concerning
The extension of CPEC into Afghanistan poses risks for India across diplomatic, geopolitical, and strategic dimensions. The following are the main concerns:
Regional influence and geopolitical impact
India has historically maintained a strong presence in Afghanistan through major development projects such as the Zaranj-Delaram highway, the Afghan Parliament building, and key hospitals. With China and Pakistan now stepping up their involvement, India’s role and influence in Afghanistan could be diminished significantly.
Strategic encirclement?
China has already established a presence at strategic ports around India such as Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Pakistan), and Chittagong (Bangladesh). With CPEC now reaching Afghanistan, China gains further strategic depth on India’s western front. This strengthens what is often referred to as the “String of Pearls” strategy aimed at encircling India.
Security challenges from the China-Pakistan-Afghanistan axis
CPEC’s association with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan may increase India’s security concerns, particularly in the context of Kashmir. Pakistan could use this trilateral alliance to argue that India has no legitimate role in these economic corridors, sidelining India in regional forums and discussions. Afghanistan is rich in minerals such as lithium and rare earth elements, which are vital for high-tech and clean energy industries. Through CPEC, China would gain easier and safer access to these resources. This puts India at a competitive disadvantage in securing these critical materials for its own industrial and technological needs.
Impact on India’s Chabahar and INSTC strategy
India has invested significantly in the Chabahar Port in Iran and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) to access Central Asia and Afghanistan. However, the expansion of CPEC into Afghanistan could present a strong competing alternative backed by China and Pakistan, potentially limiting the effectiveness and strategic utility of India’s initiatives.
