In a significant turn of events, the National People’s Party (NPP) on Sunday announced that it has pulled its support backing to the ruling BJP government in Manipur due to the ongoing ethnic tensions within the state and ineffective handling of the issues by the government to restore peace. The NPP’s announcement, however, comes amid spiralling violence in the state, which has been in deadly skirmishes since May 2023. It may, however, be a blow to Chief Minister N. Biren Singh and his administration, but it does not pose any threat to the prevailing politics of the state and the BJP in particular.
Political impact: What does NPP withdrawal mean?
Under the leadership of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma from Meghalaya, the NPP has seven members in the 60-member Manipur legislative assembly. The NPP has written to the BJP informing its president, J.P. Nadda, about their dissatisfaction with how the violence has been handled and said that the government under Biren Singh has ‘totally’ failed to control the same. The party also reproached the state government for the ethnic conflict that has taken place in the state, causing the death of hundreds and displacement of thousands.
Even after the NPP has decided to withdraw its support, the government of the BJP is not likely to be in jeopardy. The BJP has 37 seats in the Assembly, well above the half of the drawing board of 31. This means that even without the NPP’s 7 legislators, the BJP can continue to govern with the support of its remaining allies, including the Janata Dal (United), which holds 6 seats. The party maintained that it would be able to bring back peace, while this policy is already being heavily criticised for its ineffectiveness in this case.
Withdrawing support for the NPP is viewed as a tactical measure, i.e., to avoid any undesirable nexus on account of the ongoing mismanagement of the situation. Therefore, the NPP could take advantage of the dissatisfaction of the people which arises out of the ‘failed’ BJP and try to enhance its presence in the region.
The ongoing crisis in Manipur: Root causes of violence
For a considerable period, Manipur has been associated with all the ethnic communities living inside it, be it the Meitei-Kukis-Naga, as a conflict-prone region. Over the years, demands for more autonomy, preservation of ethnic groups, land, and resource control have always been the source of restless agitation.
The current wave of violence began in May 2023, when clashes broke out between the Meitei and Kuki communities, with the latter accusing the state government of favouring the Meitei majority. This in turn escalated further, leading to the loss of lives and property and the displacement of many people. Apart from ethnic conflicts, political discrepancies have also increased the levels of violence, as different ethnic communities keep on demanding more autonomy and respect for their rights.
Despite the central government’s heavy-handed approach, which included deploying military forces, lasting peace has not been achieved. Some argue that these measures have only deepened the mistrust between the communities.
The attack on Chief Minister Biren Singh’s residence
The state experienced a terrible rise in violence on Saturday after an angry mob sought to breach Chief Minister N. Biren Singh’s private house in Imphal. The situation was quickly diffused by security personnel, who used tear gas shells to disperse the crowd. Fortunately, the state’s chief minister was not at his home at the time of the onslaught, and it was confirmed that he was safe in his office.
This attack represents a critical juncture in the existing tensions, indicating the level of frustration and anger that the public feels towards the state government and its actions. To make matters worse, it is interesting to note that the Chief Minister’s official residence was not just any other residence but at the centre of the violence.
The attempted attack on the home of Biren Singh also puts forth concerns about the safety and security of the political leaders and the government officials in the state, as well as to the seeming weariness of the masses towards the authorities. It emphasises as well the turbulent politics of Manipur, where the rising tide of unrest is beginning to push the people to rebel against the existing order.
Can the Biren Singh government survive?
Although the support of the NPP has been retracted, the ruling NDA government in Manipur is in a position to rule for a very long time because it commands a majority in the Assembly. To note, however, the political dynamics of the state remain ever-changing, and the increasing agitation may present certain risks for the ruling party in the long term. The government of Chief Minister Biren Singh is under increasing pressure to find solutions to the problems that have given rise to the current crisis and to seek the establishment of a permanent political resolution.
At the current moment, different sections of society are advocating for a political dialogue that encompasses all groups, including the Meitei, Kuki, Naga, and other lesser-known groups. Even though the federal government has sent in reinforcements to keep the peace, reports suggest that this situation is and will continue to be a deep-seated political problem that cannot be cured by just resorting to a military solution. Probably reconciliation is the only strategy that considers meeting the aspirations of various ethnic groups in Manipur clamouring for autonomy, land and natural resource rights, and respectful inclusion in governance.
What’s next for Manipur?
As the crisis continues, the people of Manipur are facing immense suffering, with thousands displaced and many lives lost. The increasing discontent with the present government, as demonstrated by the stress on the NPP and the storming of the Chief Minister’s house, points to the fact that the situation is ever-so-quickly spiralling out of control. To stay in power, the Biren Singh government will have to restore normalcy and address the political concerns of different communities.
So far, the BJP government in Manipur appears to be in power, but whether it will be able to deal with the causes of violence and work out a political settlement will soon determine how much longer it will be able to expect support from the public and its allies.
